Posted
February, 2002
14-Year
Prediction of DSM-IV Adult Diagnoses from Childhood CBCL Scores
in the Netherlands
Dutch
researchers Marijke Hofstra, Jan van der Ende, and Frank Verhulst
(2002) tested the ability of CBCL scores obtained on a random
sample of 1,578 children to predict diagnoses made from DSM-IV
interviews 14 years later, when the participants were 18 to
30 years old. Numerous statistically significant predictive
relations were found, many of which differed for men vs. women.
For men, significant predictive relations were found between
5 different CBCL syndromes and diagnoses of DSM-IV disruptive
disorders (Oppositional Defiant Disorder, Antisocial Personality
Disorder, ADHD, and any other disruptive disorder). For females,
by contrast, no CBCL syndromes predicted adult disruptive
disorders. However, four syndromes predicted women's anxiety
disorders (Generalized Anxiety Disorder, Obsessive-Compulsive
Disorder, Panic Disorder, Agoraphobia, Social Phobia, Specific
Phobia, and any other anxiety disorder), whereas no syndromes
predicted men's anxiety disorders. When the research team
controlled for associations among the eight CBCL syndromes,
socioeconomic status, and age at initial assessment, the Anxious/Depressed
and Delinquent (Rule-Breaking) Behavior syndromes survived
as significant predictors of disruptive disorders for men,
whereas the Social Problems syndrome survived as a significant
predictor of anxiety disorders for women. Even though individual
syndromes did not predict disruptive disorders among women,
CBCL Externalizing scores strongly predicted women's disruptive
disorders (odds ratio = 10.4). This indicated that global
Externalizing problem patterns, rather than more specific
sets of childhood problems, were forerunners of disruptive
disorders among women. Of special interest was the finding
that CBCL Internalizing scores and Delinquent Behavior scores
were significant predictors of mood disorders (Major Depression,
Bipolar Disorder, Dysthymia, any other mood disorder) among
men, but that no CBCL scores significantly predicted mood
disorders among women. These findings led Hofstra and her
colleagues to suggest "that the developmental pathways
toward mood disorders in adult males tend to be rooted in
earlier problems during childhood, whereas the much more prevalent
mood disorders in adult females tend to emerge de novo later
in life" (p. 187). Another especially interesting finding
was that boys who were deviant on both the Anxious/Depressed
and Delinquent Behavior syndromes were at exceptionally high
risk for having disruptive disorders in adulthood (odds ratio
= 8.0).
Reference:
Hofstra, M.B., van der Ende, J., & Verhulst, F.C. (2002).
Child and Adolescent Problems Predict DSM-IV Disorders in
Adulthood: A 14-year Follow-up of a Dutch Epidemiological
Sample. Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent
Psychiatry, 41, 182-189.